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Infectious diseases have detrimental impacts across wildlife taxa. Despite this, we often lack information on the complex spatial and contact structures of host populations, reducing our ability to understand disease spread and our preparedness for epidemic response. This is also prevalent in the marine environment, where rapid habitat changes due to anthropogenic disturbances and human-induced climate change are heightening the vulnerability of marine species to disease. Recognizing these risks, we leveraged a collated dataset to establish a data-driven epidemiological metapopulation model for Tamanend’s bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops erebennus), whose populations are periodically impacted by deadly respiratory disease. We found their spatial distribution and contact is heterogeneous throughout their habitat and by ecotype, which explains differences in past infection burdens. With our metapopulation approach, we demonstrate spatial hotspots for epidemic risk during migratory seasons and that populations in some central estuaries would be the most effective sentinels for disease surveillance. These mathematical models provide a generalizable, non-invasive tool that takes advantage of routinely collected wildlife data to mechanistically understand disease transmission and inform disease surveillance tactics. Our findings highlight the heterogeneities that play a crucial role in shaping the impacts of infectious diseases, and how a data-driven understanding of these mechanisms enhances epidemic preparedness. 

Anthropogenic global change is occurring at alarming rates, leading to increased urgency in the ability to monitor wildlife health in real time. Monitoring sentinel marine species, such as bottlenose dolphins, is particularly important due to extensive anthropogenic modifications to their habitats. The most common non-invasive method of monitoring cetacean health is documentation of skin lesions, often associated with poor health or disease, but the current methodology is inefficient and imprecise. Recent advancements in technology, such as machine learning, can provide researchers with more efficient ecological monitoring methods to address health questions at both the population and the individual levels. Our work develops a machine learning model to classify skin lesions on the understudied Tamanend's bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops erebennus) of the Chesapeake Bay, using manual estimates of lesion presence in photographs. We assess the model's performance and find that our best model performs with a high mean average precision (65.6 %–86.8 %), and generally increased accuracy with improved photo quality. We also demonstrate the model's ability to address ecological questions across scales by generating model-based estimates of lesion prevalence and testing the effect of gregariousness on health status. At the population level, our model accurately estimates a prevalence of 72.1 % spot and 27.3 % fringe ring lesions, with a slight underprediction compared to manual estimates (82.2 % and 32.1 %). On the other hand, we find that individual-level analyses from the model predictions may be more sensitive to data quality, and thus, some individual scale questions may not be feasible to address if data quality is inconsistent. Manually, we do find that lesion presence in individuals suggests a positive relationship between lesion presence and gregariousness. This work demonstrates that object detection models on photographic data are reasonably successful, highly efficient, and provide initial estimates on the health status of understudied populations of bottlenose dolphins. 

Abstract AimUnderstanding the distribution of marine organisms is essential for effective management of highly mobile marine predators that face a variety of anthropogenic threats. Recent work has largely focused on modelling the distribution and abundance of marine mammals in relation to a suite of environmental variables. However, biotic interactions can largely drive distributions of these predators. We aim to identify how biotic and abiotic variables influence the distribution and abundance of a particular marine predator, the bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus), using multiple modelling approaches and conducting an extensive literature review. LocationWestern North Atlantic continental shelf. MethodsWe combined widespread marine mammal and fish and invertebrate surveys in an ensemble modelling approach to assess the relative importance and capacity of the environment and other marine species to predict the distribution of both coastal and offshore bottlenose dolphin ecotypes. We corroborate the modelled results with a systematic literature review on the prey of dolphins throughout the region to help explain patterns driven by prey availability, as well as reveal new ones that may not necessarily be a predator–prey relationship. ResultsWe find that coastal bottlenose dolphin distributions are associated with one family of fishes, the Sciaenidae, or drum family, and predictions slightly improve when using only fish versus only environmental variables. The literature review suggests that this tight coupling is likely a predator–prey relationship. Comparatively, offshore dolphin distributions are more strongly related to environmental variables, and predictions are better for environmental‐only models. As revealed by the literature review, this may be due to a mismatch between the animals caught in the fish and invertebrate surveys and the predominant prey of offshore dolphins, notably squid. Main ConclusionsIncorporating prey species into distribution models, especially for coastal bottlenose dolphins, can help inform ecological relationships and predict marine predator distributions. 

Abstract Direct pathogen and parasite transmission is fundamentally driven by a population’s contact network structure and its demographic composition and is further modulated by pathogen life-history traits. Importantly, populations are most often concurrently exposed to a suite of pathogens, which is rarely investigated, because contact networks are typically inferred from spatial proximity only. Here, we use 5 years of detailed observations of Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops aduncus) that distinguish between four different types of social contact. We investigate how demography (sex and age) affects these different social behaviors. Three of the four social behaviors can be used as a proxy for understanding key routes of direct pathogen transmission (sexual contact, skin contact, and aerosol contact of respiratory vapor above the water surface). We quantify the demography-dependent network connectedness, representing the risk of exposure associated with the three pathogen transmission routes, and quantify coexposure risks and relate them to individual sociability. Our results suggest demography-driven disease risk in bottlenose dolphins, with males at greater risk than females, and transmission route-dependent implications for different age classes. We hypothesize that male alliance formation and the divergent reproductive strategies in males and females drive the demography-dependent connectedness and, hence, exposure risk to pathogens. Our study provides evidence for the risk of coexposure to pathogens transmitted along different transmission routes and that they relate to individual sociability. Hence, our results highlight the importance of a multibehavioral approach for a more complete understanding of the overall pathogen transmission risk in animal populations, as well as the cumulative costs of sociality. 

Abstract Barnacles can reveal much about the physiology, health, and spatial ecology of their cetacean hosts. Here, we examine how temperature and hydrodynamic factors impact presence ofXenobalanus globicipitis, a pseudo‐stalked barnacle that attaches exclusively to cetaceans. We hypothesized that temperature is a key environmental factor (i.e., water temperature) and physiological factor, in thatX. globicipitisprefers the warmest skin temperature for attachment, possibly as a mechanism for survival in colder waters. First, we demonstrate a global relationship between spatial ecology of host species and presence ofX. globicipitis. Notably,X. globicipitisis absent in the four species occupying waters with the lowest sea surface temperature (SST) year‐round, but present in migratory species that likely acquire the barnacle in waters with higher SST. Second, barnacle attachment location on common bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) dorsal fins corresponds with fin temperature and hydrodynamics. Although body temperature may influence attachment location on the body of the animal, hydrodynamic forces, as previously proposed, determine how well barnacles can remain attached during the adult stage.X. globicipitisprevalence likely provides important bioindicator, ecological, and physiological information about its host. As parasitic infestation has some cost, these results have implications for cetacean health in warming seas.